Mean Absolute Error (MAE)

Mean Absolute Error, or MAE, is a standard metric for measuring forecast accuracy. It is the average of the absolute differences between predicted and observed values. For wave heights, an MAE of 0.8 ft means the forecast is, on average, within 0.8 feet of what actually happened. MAE is easier to interpret than root-mean-square error because it treats every foot of error equally and reports its result in the same units as the measurement. Swell Intel publishes MAE numbers for every region and spot on the [forecast accuracy dashboard](/accuracy) so you can see exactly how reliable our predictions are.