Forecast Accuracy
We track every forecast we make and compare it to what actually happened. No spin, no cherry-picking.
Accuracy by Region
sorted by accuracyPuerto Rico
within 1ft
within 1.5ft
East Coast
within 1ft
within 1.5ft
California
within 1ft
within 1.5ft
Pacific NW
within 1ft
within 1.5ft
Oahu
within 1ft
within 1.5ft
Gulf Coast
Validation coming soon
No NDBC buoys in comparison range here yet — our model runs for all 13 spots, but we only publish accuracy where an independent buoy can verify it.
New England
Validation coming soon
No NDBC buoys in comparison range here yet — our model runs for all 9 spots, but we only publish accuracy where an independent buoy can verify it.
Accuracy Over Time
Getting Better Every Day
Every forecast we generate is another data point that makes the next one more accurate. As we collect more data across more swell events, seasons, and edge cases, our model learns the unique behavior of each coastline and refines its corrections.
We run automated calibration after every model cycle, comparing our predictions against NDBC offshore buoys and CDIP nearshore Waveriders at 10–30 m depth — where depth-induced shoaling starts to matter and the forecast is hardest to get right. When a region consistently over- or under-predicts, our system applies per-spot corrections that tighten accuracy over time.
How We Measure
The average difference between our predicted wave height and the observed height, in feet. Lower is better. An MAE under 1ft means our forecast is reliably within one foot of reality.
Pair-weighted: we count every forecast-observation pair in the window and report the share that land within one foot of what the buoy actually read. Regions with more observations count more — no binary pass/fail on individual buoys.
Coarse grids capture open-ocean swells, intermediate grids resolve regional coastline effects, and fine grids (down to 50m resolution) model how waves transform over each spot's unique bathymetry.
We validate against NDBC offshore buoys and CDIP nearshore Waveriders at 10–30 m depth — close enough to the surf zone that shoaling matters, but far enough offshore to have a reliable ground-truth signal. Breaking face-height validation at flagship reef spots is rolling out as a separate tier.
Accuracy is everything.
If we can't earn your trust with data, we haven't earned your money. When we get it wrong, we tell you why and what we're doing about it. We believe transparency makes better forecasts — and better forecasts make better sessions.
Browse Forecasts